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On Monday, we outlined a neutral trend of a lesser degree, as implied by the daily chart. In addition to that, we observed a formation of the inverted head and shoulders on the 3-hour chart, noting the potential for a small price surge if the neckline was broken to the upside. Interestingly enough, in a broad market risk-on move yesterday, Bitcoin (<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/">BTCUSD</a>) rose through the neckline and continued to march above $66,000, where it currently trades. As a result, technical conditions slightly improved on the daily chart and moved toward the bullish side, with RSI and Stochastic resuming growth. Nevertheless, MACD has not yet returned to the bullish zone above the midpoint, and the ADX has not recorded a significant rise, suggesting the trend is still either neutral or very weak if bullish. The major resistance lies at $67,513; if this level is taken out, it will likely open a path to $70,000.
&nbsp;
Apart from technicals, major stock market indices recovered nicely from recent selling, being a positive development for Bitcoin, which remains highly correlated with the U.S. tech sector; unless indices start forming a double top, the chances of Bitcoin returning above $70,000 and marking new all-time highs will grow. What is more concerning, though, is that inflows into various Bitcoin-related ETFs saw a significant slowdown this month. For example, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-BITB/">BITB</a>) recorded $226.07 million inflows in April 2024. However, so far this month, it saw merely $10.6 million flowing into the coffins. The same is the case for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-FBTC/">FBTC</a>), whose inflows amounted to $659.42 last month and only $26.19 in the current one. Similarly, iShares Bitcoin Trust (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-IBIT/">IBIT</a>) experienced inflows of more than $1.6 billion last month but only $23.91 million thus far in May 2024.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/btc1_3e43efa17c.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The 3-hour Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart portrays the inverted head and shoulders and bullish breakout through the neckline.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/BTC_MACD_21f09f56ff.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The illustration portrays Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) daily MACD. Its return above the midpoint will bolster a bullish case in the short term. Contrarily, a failure to break through the midpoint will raise slight concerns over an impending loss of momentum, especially if combined with a lack of growth in ADX.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/btc1_2f557e3a07.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The image above shows simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
&nbsp;
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
&nbsp;
<h3>Bitcoin addresses</h3>
The number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC increased moderately in the past two days, but the rise is insignificant. Besides that, the figure is still lower than a month ago. The same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC.&nbsp;

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Limited access to all features.

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Risk-on mood is on, but ETF inflows are slowing down

Arab-Israel conflicts

<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Khartoum Resolution</h3>
In response to Israel&rsquo;s expansion in the aftermath of the Six Days War of 1967, the Arab League held a summit in Khartoum between 29th August 1967 and 1st September 1967. During the summit, Arab leaders formulated the so-called &ldquo;Three No&rsquo;s Resolution,&rdquo; which bound member countries not to recognize, negotiate, and make peace with Israel.
&nbsp;
<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Additional context:</h3>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The Yom Kippur War intensified the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union, as both superpowers provided military assistance to their respective allies in the conflict.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The conflict led to the weaponization of oil, with Arab oil-producing countries imposing an oil embargo against countries supporting Israel, leading to the 1973 oil crisis.&nbsp;</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The war prompted a strategic realignment in the Middle East, with Egypt shifting away from its alliance with the Soviet Union and pursuing closer ties with the United States.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>The Munich Olympic Games Massacre of 1972</h3>
Despite Israel&rsquo;s win in the Six Days War, hostilities between Israelis and Arabs did not cease. In fact, the terrorist attacks continued to mount in the following years, escalating on 5th September 1972 when a group of eight Palestinian terrorists infiltrated the premises of the Munich Olympic Village, leading to a hostage situation that resulted in the killing of eleven Israeli athletes and one German police officer. The police&rsquo;s response resulted in the capture of three attackers. However, one month later, on 29th October 1972, another group of three terrorists hijacked a Lufthansa plane and demanded the release of captives responsible for the massacre. The German government caved to these demands, and terrorists were released. Some of these men were later assassinated or died from natural causes. Nonetheless, this tragic event significantly contributed to tensions between Arabs and Israelis.
&nbsp;
<h3>The Yom-Kippur War</h3>
The Yom Kippur War erupted on 6th October 1973, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, the Day of Atonement. The invasion by Egyptian and Syrian forces came as a total surprise to the U.S. and Israeli intelligence, which, at the time, assessed the threat of another conflict was low and ignored warnings of an impending attack from a son-in-law of the former Egyptian president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, and Jordan&rsquo;s King Hussein. At the start of the conflict, Israel&rsquo;s adversaries stormed through the Bar-Lev line, which was thought to deter the enemy for an extended period but failed within a matter of few hours. That allowed Arabs to proceed further into the Sinai Peninsula and caused some fractures among Israel&rsquo;s leadership. After the initial shock and setbacks, Israel's military orchestrated a series of counteroffensives that would alter the course of the conflict. The IDF successfully managed to halt the Syrian advance in Golan Heights, and within a few days, it reached the position on the west bank of the Suez Canal, just 100km (62 miles) away from the Egyptian capital, Cairo. This situation forced Egypt&rsquo;s president, Anwar Sadat, to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Israel on 25th October 1973 and helped to pave the way for future negotiations between the two countries. For Syria, however, this outcome was far more adverse, and it ended up losing territory in Golan Heights. Depending on the source, combined Egyptian and Syrian losses are estimated to be in the range of 8,000 to 20,000 men. Meanwhile, the official Israeli sources state that 2,688 Israeli soldiers fell in the war.[1]
&nbsp;
<h3>Camp David Accords</h3>
The chaos and destruction the Yom-Kippur War brought led to a newfound willingness among Arab states and Israel to seek a diplomatic solution to mutual disagreements. These efforts finally culminated in 1978 with the start of Camp David negotiations in Maryland, United States. &nbsp;Hosted by U.S. President Jimmy Carter and attended by Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, the negotiations ushered a new hope for improvement in the mutual relationship between Arabs and Israelis. Consequently, the Camp David Accords helped to create a framework for future peace and led to the signing of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty on 26th March 1979.
&nbsp;

A war on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. 

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Israeli Missions Around the World: "The Yom Kippur War (October 1973)"

Yale Law School - Lillian Goldman Law Library: "Camp David Accords; September 17, 1978, Avalon Project"

The United States Office of the Historian: "The 1973 Arab-Israeli War"

The United States Department of State: "Carter and the Camp David Accords, 1977-1978"

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Destroyed Israeli tank in Golan Heights. 

Yom Kippur War (1973)

<h3>The Six-Day War</h3>
The Six-Day War was a short-lived conflict that erupted on 5th June 1967 between Israel and the coalition of Arab nations, including Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. The roots of this military confrontation can be traced to the establishment of Israel as a sovereign nation in 1948, which led to disputes over borders and water rights in the region. Over the years, growing Arab nationalism resulted in increasingly more clashes between Syria and Israel, prompting Syria and Egypt to form a military pact, later joined by Jordan and Iraq. As a prelude to war, Egypt demanded the removal of the United Nations Emergency Forces (UNEF) from the Sinai Peninsula. These requests were fulfilled, and on 23rd May 1967, Egypt renewed a blockade on Israeli shipping through the Strait of Tiran. In the meantime, Egypt had already started to amass the army in the Sinai Peninsula, allegedly due to false information from the Soviet Union that Israel was mobilizing its reservists with the intent to attack Syria. In a short series of events, Egypt informed Jordan and Syria about this news, and they started to move their forces toward Israel&rsquo;s border. That prompted the Israelis to establish a national unity government on 1st June 1967 and launch a preemptive attack against an enemy on 5th June 1967.&nbsp;The pre-emptive attack began with the Israeli Air Force striking the Egyptian airfields and dismantling its air defense within the early hours of the conflict, guaranteeing the Israelis complete air dominance for the rest of the war. Soon after that, Jordan and Syria began an attack on the opposite front. However, despite being significantly outnumbered, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took control of the Sinai Peninsula up to the Suez Canal, the entire West Bank of the River Jordan, and part of the Golan Heights within less than a week. With the IDF staging an overwhelming victory, Jordan and Egypt accepted the ceasefire on 8th June 1967, and Syria on 10th June 1967. Consequently, Israel expanded its territory, which became a subject of many future negotiations and was deemed &ldquo;inadmissible&rdquo; by the United Nations Security Council Resolution 242. During the brief duration of the conflict, Israel suffered approximately 800 casualties, while its adversaries are estimated to have lost as many as 15,000 troops.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>Additional context:</h3>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The Six-Day War catalyzed a shift in the Palestinian national movement towards armed struggle and the prominence of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The Israeli victory was attributed to its superior military strategy, training, and intelligence despite being outnumbered by the combined forces of the opposing Arab states.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Israel's control of strategic waterways, including the access to the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aqaba, became a pivotal point in its national security policy post-war.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>USS Liberty incident&nbsp;</h3>
In a tragic and very controversial event, on 8th June 1967, Israeli fighter jets and torpedo boats attacked the United States Navy ship USS Liberty, which was located in the international waters north of the Sinai peninsula. Thirty-four United States service members were killed in the attack by Israeli soldiers, and after the incident, Israel&rsquo;s government claimed this to be the result of mistaken identity. These claims are, however, widely disputed due to the emergence of an audiotape that recorded the communication between the Israeli fighter jet pilot and the Israeli command tower shortly before the strike.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>United Nations Security Council Resolution 242</h3>
In the aftermath of the Six-Day War, the United Nations Security adopted United Nations Council Resolution 242 on 22nd November 1967. Some of the document&rsquo;s key provisions include the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the newly conquered territories, and the need to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence of every state in the region. Both Israelis and Arabs accepted the resolution, albeit with different interpretations. Israel interprets it as allowing for some modifications of borders for security purposes and Arabs as the entire withdrawal of Israeli troops from the occupied territory.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>The Fourth Geneva Convention</h3>
The legality of Israel&rsquo;s occupation has been disputed for decades, with critics saying that it violates provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention, often citing Article 49: &ldquo;Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive. Nevertheless, the Occupying Power may undertake total or partial evacuation of a given area if the security of the population or imperative military reasons so demand. Such evacuations may not involve the displacement of protected persons outside the bounds of the occupied territory except when for material reasons it is impossible to avoid such displacement. Persons thus evacuated shall be transferred back to their homes as soon as hostilities in the area in question have ceased. The Occupying Power undertaking such transfers or evacuations shall ensure, to the greatest practicable extent, that proper accommodation is provided to receive the protected persons, that the removals are effected in satisfactory conditions of hygiene, health, safety and nutrition, and that members of the same family are not separated. The Protecting Power shall be informed of any transfers and evacuations as soon as they have taken place. The Occupying Power shall not detain protected persons in an area particularly exposed to the dangers of war unless the security of the population or imperative military reasons so demand. The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.&rdquo;[2]

The conflict that led to Israel's expansion.

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Geneva Convention on Civilians (IV): "Article 49 - Deportations, transfers, evacuations"

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The Six-Day War (1967)

<h3>Suez Canal</h3>
The Suez Canal is a man-made waterway in Egypt that connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea. It was completed in 1869 and took ten years to construct, with an initial length of approximately 164 kilometers (about 102 miles). After its completion, the Suez Canal was controlled by the Universal Suez Ship Canal Company. This private company, made up mainly of French investors,&nbsp;was granted rights to operate the canal for 99 years by the contemporary regional powers. In the following decades, the canal became a vital shipping route, providing a significant shortcut for ships sailing between Europe and Asia that would otherwise have to navigate around Africa&rsquo;s Cape of Good Hope.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Additional context:</h3>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The Suez Canal Crisis to the first armed deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping force (UNEF).[1]</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The crisis was a diplomatic victory for Egypt and increased President Nasser's popularity both domestically and in the Arab world.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The Aswan Dam, central to the initial tensions, was later completed with Soviet support, strengthening Egypt's ties with the USSR.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The Eisenhower Doctrine, announced in 1957, was partly a response to the Suez Crisis, pledging U.S. support to Middle Eastern countries resisting communism.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1936</h3>
Despite Egypt&rsquo;s unilateral declaration of independence in early 1922, Great Britain kept its troops and war material in the African country for another three decades. Nonetheless, one of the crucial milestones toward Egypt's actual independence was the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty, signed on 26th August 1936. This accord aimed to resolve the longstanding issue of the British military presence in Egypt, a matter of disagreement since the start of British occupation in 1882.
&nbsp;
<h3>The Egyptian Revolution of 1952</h3>
The Egyptian Revolution of 1952 was a military coup carried out by the group called the &ldquo;Free Officers Movement,&rdquo; led by Muhammad Naguib and Gamal Abdel Nasser. It occurred on 23rd July 1952 and marked a pivotal moment in Egypt&rsquo;s history. The revolution resulted in the monarchy's breakdown and King Farouk's dethroning. Subsequently, these events set the stage for the creation of the Republic of Egypt. Muhammad Naguib was proclaimed the first president of the country. However, due to political conflicts among higher ranks, Nasser removed Naguib from power and took rule over socialist Egypt in 1954. Consequently, the revolution helped to bolster a sense of Arab nationalism and sped up decolonization efforts in the region.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>Heads of Agreement</h3>
On 26th July 1954, the Republic of Egypt and Great Britain signed the Heads of Agreement, recognizing the Suez Canal&rsquo;s economic, commercial, and strategic significance.[2] The document legally bound Great Britain to withdraw about 80,000 troops from the country within twenty months of the treaty's signing. In return, the Republic of Egypt promised to keep running the Suez Canal efficiently and allow the British to station their forces within Egypt during wartime.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>Arms deal of 1955</h3>
According to a declassified CIA document, the Egyptian government had sought to buy weapons and military equipment from the Soviet Union in 1951.[3] Nevertheless, negotiations brought little success at the start. It was only in late September 1955 that efforts finally produced results, and the Egyptian government announced the purchase of Czechoslovakian arms in exchange for goods such as rice and cotton.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>The crisis</h3>
Egypt&rsquo;s decision to nationalize the Suez Canal on 26th July 1956 and impose a toll on passing ships to finance the development of the Aswan Dam quickly sparked a crisis in the region, prompting Great Britain, France, and Israel to secretly develop plans for an invasion of the Sinai Peninsula. On 29th October 1956, Israel launched a successful ground attack against Egypt, and just two days later, the British and French deployed their troops at Port Faud and Port Said. Allied nations advanced quickly, stopping only 16 kilometers (10 miles) away from the Suez Canal. The eruption of the conflict soured the relationship between Britain, France, and the United States, which was left uninformed about the plans for an attack. Furthermore, it raised tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, which threatened to use nuclear weapons against Europe if attackers didn&rsquo;t withdraw their forces. In response, Eisenhower's administration tried de-escalating the situation and threatened economic sanctions on the United Kingdom and France. Under these threats, the British and French withdrew their soldiers from Egypt by the end of December 1956. Israel completed its withdrawal by 8th March 1957, and the Suez Canal reopened that same month.&nbsp;

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The United Kingdom Parliament: Heads of Agreement

Central Intelligence Agency: CIA-RDP79T01049A001300060003-5

The United States Office of the Historian: "The Suez Crisis, 1956"

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Suez Canal Crisis (1956)

Apple delivered its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024. According to the report, the company generated revenue worth $90.753 billion, down 4.3% YoY, and net income of $23.636 billion, representing a decrease of 2.16% YoY. Operating income amounted to $27.9 billion for the same period, falling 1.5% YoY. In addition to that, Apple announced the largest share buyback program in the company&rsquo;s history, amounting to $110 billion.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Net revenue = $90.7 billion (-4.3% YoY) vs. $94.8 billion in FY2Q23
Net income = $23.6 billion (-2.16% YoY) vs. $24.1 billion in FY2Q23
Operating income = $27.9 billion (-1.5% YoY) vs. $28.3 billion in FY2Q23
Earnings per share = $1.53 (0% YoY) vs. $1.53 in FY2Q23
&nbsp;
<h3>Additional information</h3>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Operating costs rose 5.2% YoY to $14.3 billion.&nbsp;</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">iPhone sales fell 10.4% YoY.&nbsp;</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Mac sales increased nearly 4% YoY.&nbsp;</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">iPad sales went down 16.6% YoY.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Sales in the wearable, home, and accessories category dropped 9.6% YoY.&nbsp;</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Revenue from services grew by 14.1%</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The company&rsquo;s liabilities declined by about 9.4% YoY.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Apple increased its dividend to $0.25 per share.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>Forward guidance</h3>
Apple did not provide any forward guidance. However, its CEO, Tim Cook, said the company plans to announce big news in regard to artificial intelligence. On top of that, he expressed optimism about the company&rsquo;s operations in China, looking further into the future.

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Apple Investor Relations (second quarter FY2024 earnings)

Apple announces earnings for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024

Basic concepts in technical analysis

The first documented use of charts goes back to ancient Babylonia, where their early forms were used primarily for record-keeping by astrologists and merchants.[1] Then, sometime between the 5th and 6th century A.D., these graphical representations developed into a form reminiscent of today&rsquo;s charts. Further refinement and development of charting techniques continued through the centuries, influenced by advancements in mathematics, commerce, and technology, which propelled charts from hand-drawn illustrations to sophisticated computerized displays in the 20th century. Nowadays, there is a myriad of visualization options, but line charts, bar charts, and candlestick charts are the most widely used for the purpose of technical analysis.
&nbsp;
<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Key takeaways:</h3>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">A&nbsp;chart is a graphical display of data, usually price and volume.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">In the context of financial markets, charts serve as tools for analyzing trends, patterns, and relationships in data.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">There is a wide array of visualization options available today, with line charts, bar charts, candlestick charts, and equivolume charts being among the most commonly used.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Different types of charts are suitable for analyzing different aspects of data, ranging from long-term trends to short-term price movements and volatility.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>Line chart</h3>
A line chart is represented by a single line that provides information about the price on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. It is typically constructed by connecting a closing price. This type of chart is suitable for analyzing long-term trends, but its main drawback is that it provides only one piece of information, unlike a bar graph or a candlestick graph.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Construction_of_charts_Illustration_1_01_b316abeb20.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The illustration above shows the daily line graph of Bitcoin (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/ideas/">BTCUSD</a>) between 2020 and late 2022.
Source:&nbsp;<a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/iO465K6l/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/iO465K6l/</a>&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>Bar chart</h3>
A bar chart is constructed with bars, each representing one particular time interval. These bars provide information about opening price, closing price, high, and low. As such, volatility and various price patterns can be easily observed. This type of chart fits short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend studies.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Construction_of_charts_Illustration_1_02_af611b52c0.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The image portrays the daily bar chart of silver (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAGUSD/?exchange=OANDA">XAGUSD</a>) throughout 2022 and early 2023.&nbsp;
Source: <a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/yMomEBR5/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/yMomEBR5/</a>&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>Candlestick chart</h3>
A candlestick chart is very similar to a bar chart and provides information about opening price, closing price, high, and low. It consists of the real body and shadow. The real body is a rectangular area between the opening and closing prices. Shadows are the price extremes that occur within a trading session and are represented by thin bars above and below the real body. The shadow above the real body is called the upper shadow, and the shadow below the real body is called the lower shadow. Candlestick charts are appropriate for analyzing short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Construction_of_charts_Illustration_1_03_cb53ee3289.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
Above is the weekly candlestick chart of gold (<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XAUUSD</a>) between late 2007 and early 2017.
Source: <a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOteQcxc/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOteQcxc/</a> 
&nbsp;
<h3>Equivolume chart</h3>
In an equivolume chart, the width of each bar or candlestick is proportional to the volume traded during that period, while the height represents the price range (high to low) for the same period. This type of chart aims to visually depict the relationship between trading volume and price movement, allowing traders to identify patterns and trends more effectively. Equivolume charts are especially useful for analyzing the strength of price movements in relation to trading activity.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Construction_of_charts_Illustration_1_04_db9ec67d5e.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The equivolume chart of silver (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAGUSD/?exchange=OANDA">XAGUSD</a>) is depicted above.&nbsp;
Source: <a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/aIOi7pOF/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/aIOi7pOF/</a>

What are charts and how are they constructed?

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT): "Price Behavior in Ancient Babylon by Peter Temin"

Construction of charts

Yesterday's FOMC meeting concluded with a decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged, leaving the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. During the subsequent press conference, Jerome Powell outlined the solid state of the economy alongside heightened inflationary pressures. Notably, he disclosed plans to commence with the reduction in quantitative tightening starting from June 2024; per the statement, the cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered to $25 billion per month from the current $60 billion per month. Market sentiment reacted positively to this news, with indices soaring during the chairman's address. However, a more hawkish tone regarding rate cuts was seemingly ignored at first when Jerome Powell admitted a lack of progress in taming inflation over the past few months, requiring the central bank to keep interest rates steady for longer; though, the chairman was swift to deny any prospects of future interest rate hikes.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Important statements from Jerome Powell</h3>
&ldquo;The economy has made considerable progress toward our dual mandate objectives.&nbsp; Inflation has eased substantially over the past year while the labor market has remained strong and that&rsquo;s very good news.&nbsp; But inflation is still too high, further progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain.&nbsp; We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
&ldquo;Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, and the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.&nbsp; However, in recent months inflation has shown a lack of further progress toward our 2 percent objective, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
&ldquo;The labor market remains relatively tight, but supply and demand conditions have come into better balance.&nbsp; Payroll job gains averaged 276 thousand jobs per month in the first quarter, while the unemployment rate remains low at 3.8 percent.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
&ldquo;Inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above our longer-run goal of 2 percent.&nbsp; Total PCE prices rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in March; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent.&nbsp; The inflation data received so far this year have been higher than expected.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
&ldquo;We have stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.&nbsp; So far this year, the data have not given us that greater confidence. In particular, and as I noted earlier, readings on inflation have come in above expectations.&ldquo;
&nbsp;
&ldquo;We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for as long as appropriate. We are also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market.&rdquo;

The recap of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. 

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The headquarters of the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, United States. 

All you need to know about yesterday's FOMC meeting

<h3>The British Mandate of Palestine</h3>
Following the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I, Great Britain acquired a mandate from the League of Nations to govern Palestine in 1922. This mandate formally incorporated the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which expressed Great Britain&rsquo;s support for &ldquo;the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine&rdquo;[1]&nbsp;and laid the groundwork for the massive immigration of Jews into their ancestral homeland in years to come. The British mandate ceased to exist on 14th May 1948 following the adoption of Resolution 181 by the United Nations on 29th November 1947.
&nbsp;
<h3>Additional context:</h3>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;" aria-level="1">The eruption of World War II and the prosecution of Jews in Europe significantly contributed to Jewish immigration into Palestine during the 1930s and 1940s.</li>
<li>Palestine failed to declare independence at the end of the British mandate.&nbsp;</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;" aria-level="1">The United Nations was one of the first international bodies to address the question of Palestine, creating the Partition Plan that intended to create two separate Arab and Jewish states.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>The Resolution 181</h3>
Resolution 181, also called the Partition Plan, intended to separate the region of Palestine into two separate states, with Jerusalem falling under a special international regime. The resolution was a response to the growing tensions and violence between Arabs and Jews. It sought to address the conflicting national aspirations and provide a peaceful solution.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>The Arab-Israeli War</h3>
The British handling of the mandate caused discontent among the Arab population, who felt that its historical and cultural claims to the land were being overshadowed by the establishment of a new state. In addition to that, years of ongoing clashes, with one side accusing the other of hostilities, helped create a stage for a military confrontation. The tensions finally culminated with the expiration of the British mandate and Israel&rsquo;s declaration of independence on 14th May 1948. The next day, six Arab nations, including Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Syria, decided to attack their smaller neighbor Israel. The war lasted almost a year, with the United Nations brokering two cease-fires throughout its duration. Yet, despite that, fighting continued until the peace negotiations commenced in February 1949. In the end, Israel gained some of the territory that was initially given to Palestine under United Nations Resolution 181. Meanwhile, Egypt and Jordan took control of the Gaza Strip and West Bank.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>The Aftermath</h3>
The immediate aftermath of the Arab-Israeli War saw significant geopolitical and social changes in the region. The war resulted in the displacement of a large number of Palestinians, leading to a refugee crisis that has had lasting implications. Furthermore, Israel's territorial gains led to its international recognition by major powers like the United States and the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, though, the relationships between Israel and neighboring Arab states continued to deteriorate even after the end of the war.&nbsp;

A retrospective look at the first Arab-Israeli War.

United Nations: "History of the Question of Palestine"

The United States Office of the Historian: "The Arab-Israeli War of 1948"

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Arab-Israeli War (1948)

Bitcoin (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/">BTCUSD</a>) continues to hover within the downward-sloping channel, and the trend of a lower degree remains neutral, as implied by the low value of the daily ADX and choppy price action. With these developments in place, the focus lies on support at $60,760 and $60,000; a breakout below these two levels will bolster a bearish case in the short term, especially a breakout below the latter. This case would also be strengthened by declining RSI and Stochastic on the daily graph, along with MACD&rsquo;s failure to move into the bullish area above the midpoint. Contrarily, a bullish case would be strengthened by the rise in all mentioned indicators simultaneously, along with a breakout above the 20-day SMA and later the 50-day SMA.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/btc_1_6bfbb6ece4.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shows the downward-sloping channel and two simple moving averages.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/btc_btc_15f9483640.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The yellow arrow indicates a temporary fakeout above the important trendline; if Bitcoin breaks above it and manages to stay there, it will be positive for the cryptocurrency in the short term.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/B_Tc_supp_res_e5e51a48b6.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The image above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. 
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/BTCUSD_4_160d90c8c7.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
A pattern resembling an inversed head and shoulder is forming on the 3-hour chart of BTCUSD, potentially raising the chances for a small price surge if the neckline is broken to the upside.
&nbsp;
<h3>Technical conditions</h3>
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
&nbsp;
<h3>Bitcoin addresses</h3>
There have not been any notable changes to the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC; the same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC.

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F&T: The trend of a lower degree turns neutral again

Bitcoin (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/">BTCUSD</a>) has failed to defend the ground above the 20-day SMA for multiple consecutive trading days, sliding to $62,000. This price action has been accompanied by the further flattening of RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart, along with a decline in ADX, suggesting choppy market conditions for the trend of lower degree. The weekly time frame shows several mixed signals, including declining RSI, Stochastic, and MACD; nevertheless, it is important to note that Stochastic and MACD are still within the bullish bounds of their respective zones, meaning the recent weakness could well be just a correction and not necessarily a major trend reversal. 
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/BTC_1_8f0aad15b4.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The daily chart of Bitcoin (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/">BTCUSD</a>) shows the price's failure to break above the 50-day SMA and subsequent failure to defend the ground above the 20-day SMA, which is slightly concerning.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Yet, in spite of the recent improvement in technicals on the daily graph, we deem it appropriate to stay highly attentive to market developments. The inability of the U.S. stock market indices to reach new all-time highs in the upcoming days or weeks could act as a headwind for Bitcoin, which remains strongly correlated to the U.S. tech sector. In addition to that, more data releases showing bigger-than-expected deterioration in economic conditions could reinstate fear among market participants and lead to a resurgence in volatility, potentially leading to Bitcoin's retest of its recent lows below $57,000. 
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/BTC_2_ce8fa737eb.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The illustration above shows the daily chart of Bitcoin (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/">BTCUSD</a>) and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster a bearish case in the short term.
&nbsp;
<h3>Technical conditions</h3>
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
&nbsp;
<h3>Bitcoin addresses</h3>
There have not been any notable changes to the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC; the same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC.

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F&T: Risk to the downside persists

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The inflation rate, CPI, and retail sales for the previous month will be released tomorrow. The general market expectations are that the inflation rate advanced higher by 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY in April 2024. The CPI is forecasted to come in at 313.75, and retail sales are expected to soar by 0.4% MoM, slowing down from an increase of 0.7% in March 2024. However, with accelerating inflation in the first three months of this year and commodities soaring across the board in April 2024, the question lingers whether investors are due to be surprised once again by tomorrow&rsquo;s data. 
 Performance for selected commodities throughout the last month
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Performance_April_2024_a8618db798.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
Commodities soaring the most in April 2024 include aluminium, copper, and iron ore. Meanwhile, significant losses were recorded in the cocoa market.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Performance for selected commodities since the start of 2024
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/2_54804791b4.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
Since the start of the year, many commodities soared by double digits, with cocoa recording an astounding 77.8% gain year-to-date.&nbsp;

A food for thought ahead of the important economic releases. 

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dreamstime_m_2608840 (1).jpg

Will soaring commodities lead to a surprise in tomorrow's data?

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Airbnb delivered its quarterly results for the first quarter of 2024, surpassing analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines. The company reported revenue growth of 18% YoY, bringing the figure to $2.1 billion. The net income was $264 million, up 126% YoY, and operating income amounted to $1.9 billion, recording an increase of 18% YoY. Per the investor letter, the company conducted share buybacks worth $750 million in the first quarter of the current year and registered&nbsp; 132.6 million bookings, marking an increase of 9.5% YoY.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Net revenue = $2.1 billion (18% YoY) vs. $1.8 billion in 1Q23
Net income = $264 million (126% YoY) vs. $117 million in 1Q23
Operating income = $1.9 billion (18% YoY) vs. $1.6 billion in 1Q23
Earnings per share = $0.41 (127% YoY) vs. $0.18 in 1Q23
&nbsp;
<h3>Additional information</h3>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Active listings rose by 15% in the first quarter of 2024.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Long-term stays of 28 days or more accounted for 17% of gross nights booked, down about 1% compared to the first quarter of 2023.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Gross nights booked in non-urban areas grew by 10% YoY.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>Forward guidance</h3>
Airbnb expects its revenue to increase by approximately 10% in the second quarter of 2024, bringing it to $2.68 billion. Further, the company anticipates stable growth in bookings and adjusted EBITDA to be flat to up on a nominal basis but down on an adjusted EBITDA margin basis when compared to the second quarter of 2023. In addition to that, Airbnb expects its full-year 2024 stock-based compensation expense to be approximately 20% higher than in the full year 2023.

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Airbnb announces quarterly earnings

The trend represents the directional movement of prices and plays an essential role in most technical trading systems. Technical analysis differentiates between trending and non-trending markets, also called flat trending markets. Trending markets can be either moving upwards or downwards. The upward-moving market is called the bull market, while the downward-moving market is called the bear market. Normally, a market is considered to be in an uptrend when the price reaches higher peaks and higher troughs. On the contrary, the market is regarded to be in a downtrend when the price reaches lower troughs and lower peaks. The non-trending market occurs when there is no significant uptrend or downtrend, and the price moves within a certain range. Thus, the flat trending market is notorious for its sideways-moving price action.
&nbsp;
<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Key takeaways:</h3>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Trends can vary in length and are classified into four main categories: primary, secondary, minor, and intraday.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The primary trend is the most significant trend, lasting for months or years. It's characterized by the overall direction of the market.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The secondary trend opposes the primary trend and usually lasts for weeks or months.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Identifying trends is crucial for technical traders. Methods range from simple tracking of recent lows and highs to more complex mathematical formulas.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<h3>Trend classification</h3>
Trends tend to be of different lengths. According to these lengths, trends fall into four main categories: primary trend, secondary trend, minor trend, and intraday trend. The primary trend is the only inviolable trend and lasts for a long period, usually months or years. The secondary trend runs counter to the primary trend and is often measured in weeks or months. Further, the minor trend is measured in days, and the intraday trend is represented merely by daily fluctuations in price.
&nbsp;
<h3>The primary trend</h3>
The primary trend can be subdivided into three distinctive phases. The first phase of the primary uptrend begins with the revival of investors' confidence from the prior primary downtrend. That is followed by the second phase, in which asset prices increase in response to growing corporate earnings. In the third stage, speculation becomes the dominant force driving markets higher. This environment, when asset prices are rising on the hopes, dreams, and expectations of individual investors, tends to foreshadow the beginning of the primary downtrend. Its first phase commences with the abandonment of hopes and dreams upon which investments were made. That is followed by selling pressure due to falling corporate earnings in the second phase, which later escalates into panic selling in the third stage.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Trends_Illustration_1_01_d19b5d5098.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The illustration displays the weekly chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME_MINI-NQ1!/">NQ1!</a>) for the period between late 2001 and 2008. The primary bull market began after the bottom of the &ldquo;dotcom&rdquo; bubble and lasted until the peak of the real estate and credit crisis in 2007.
Source: <a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/0S0GxMg6/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/0S0GxMg6/</a>&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Trends_Illustration_1_02_6e3f72194e.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The image above presents the daily chart of gold (<a style="color: #3598db; text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/">XAUUSD</a>) during the 2008 bear market when it dropped 34%.
Source: <a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/o8J8dofp/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/o8J8dofp/</a>&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>The secondary trend</h3>
The secondary trend is the intermediate-term trend. Its direction is opposite to the primary trend, and it represents any significant price drop in the primary bull market or price rise in the primary bear market. The secondary trend usually lasts for weeks or months. Its measure in percentage terms tends to range between 33% and 66% of the range of the primary trend. This trend is considered to be prone to market manipulation as opposed to the primary trend.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://api.tradersweekly.com/uploads/Trends_Illustration_1_03_15b3026c0b.png" alt="" width="800" height="500" />
The picture shows Bayerische Motoren Werke's (<a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XETR-BMW/">BMW</a>) daily chart throughout 2020 and 2021. The white dashed-line box indicates the primary uptrend, and the grey dashed-line boxes indicate the secondary trends, counter to the primary one.&nbsp;
Source: <a style="color: #3598db;" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPo4guEb/">https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPo4guEb/</a>&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h3>The minor and intraday trend</h3>
The minor trend lasts for a few days or weeks, yet always less than the secondary trend. It is more difficult to identify than previous types of trends since its amplitude in percentage terms is significantly less when compared to the primary and secondary trends. The same applies to the intraday trend that lasts for a few seconds up to several hours; it represents daily changes in the price and is regarded to have little predictive value.
&nbsp;
<h3>Trend identification</h3>
Identifying a trend is crucial for a trend-based technical trader, and there are plenty of methods how to identify it correctly. These methods can be simple or very complex. The simplest method of identifying trends can be done by tracking recent lows and recent highs in the price of an asset. Other simple methods involve using lines, trendlines, and curves; more complex methods usually involve the use of mathematical formulas in order to generate a set of valuable data.

Tutorial to trends in technical analysis. 

Will soaring commodities lead to a surprise in tomorrow's data?

Airbnb announces quarterly earnings

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Will soaring commodities lead to a surprise in tomorrow's data?

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